Azerbaijan Demographer's Association
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The basic directions of activity of ADA

ADA is non-governmental public organization (NGO) and works based on the Charter of ADA and laws of Azerbaijan Republic. ADA was registered on February 12, 1999 in Ministry of the Justice of Azerbaijan Republic. Main objective of ADA - all-round study of problems of a demography, forecasting of a demographic situation, the distribution of demographic knowledge also unites efforts of the various experts (such as economists, supernumeraries, medical workers, ecologists, linguistics, teachers etc.) for preparation of the demographic forecasts, And works basically in the following directions: research, information-intermediary, literature public directions.          
  On problems of a demography together with the interested organizations will organize scientific workshops (scientific conferences, symposiums, thematic evenings etc.)

ADA based on the Charter will make the following works:


The president of association is   Niyazi Mursakulov  Address:             370129, Baku, 63 “a” M.Hadi St., #97

Population Change

Source: Radio Free Europe, December 1999

HAS AZERBAIJAN'S POPULATION SHRUNK BY 40 PERCENT? The economic downturn that followed the collapse of the USSR has impelled hundreds of thousands of people to leave the three South Caucasus states in search of employment. Those three countries have undoubtedly lost a proportionately  greater part of their respective populations over the past eight years than have other former Soviet republics. But several factors make it difficult to assess precisely how great the outmigration from each of the three countries has been, and hence which of them has been most seriously affected.

First, only Azerbaijan has held a census since thecollapse of the USSR, and not all scholars consider thepublished results reliable. Second, the leaderships of the countries in question have a vested interest in downplaying the extent of the exodus rather than admit the true number of their citizens who consider the status quo intolerable. And third, external, primarily Russian commentators may also manipulate the available data for political ends.

One such exercise is an article published in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 1 December by the St. Petersburg scholar Aleksandr Arsen'ev, who may be playing to the anger many Russians apparently feel at the presence in Russia of people from the Caucasus, an anger that Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and other Russian officials have sought to exploit in recent years.

Arsen'ev seeks to demonstrate that the published results of the population census conducted in Azerbaijan in January-February of this year were fabricated, and that country has suffered the largest decline in its population of the three South Caucasus states. According to the census data, Azerbaijan's population currently numbers 7.953 million. The study takes as its starting point the population of Azerbaijan on 1 January 1988, which was 7 million. In the course of 1988-1990, the entire Armenian population of Azerbaijan, numbering about half a million, were driven out or fled. A similar number of Russians, Ukrainians, Jews and Tatars left in the late 1980s and early 1990s: of the 392,000 Russians living in the republic at the time of the 1989 Soviet census, less than 75,000 now remain, according to the chairman of Azerbaijan's Russian Community.

Arsen'ev concludes that as a result of the outmigration of a large proportion of the non-indigenous population, Azerbaijan lost no less than 1.2 million inhabitants during the decade 1989-1999. But in addition, since the demise of the USSR, up to 3 million Azerbaijanis have also left their native country: the number of Azerbaijanis resident in the Russian Federation is currently between 2-2.5 million. Specifically, the Azerbaijani population of the city of Moscow and Moscow Oblast is now 1.2 million, compared with 21,000 in 1989. Sizable numbers of Azerbaijanis have also moved to Ukraine and Turkey.

The Russian scholar estimates total outmigration of Azerbaijanis in recent years at no less than 3 million. He thus deduces that, allowing for modest natural population increase over the past decade, the country's current population cannot possibly exceed 4 million.

The two other countries in the region have also suffered population losses. The Armenian government estimates the number of people to have left the country since 1991 at between 560,000 and 600,000: unofficial estimates put it as high as 800,000. The country's total population on 1 January 1999 was 3.798 million, compared with 3.283 million one decade earlier.

Georgia's population fell from 5.73 million in 1989 to 5.425 million in 1994, primarily as a result of the outmigration of the non-Georgian population. Since then, it has increased only very slightly, to 5.437 million in 1998. (Those figures, if accurate, would substantiate President Eduard Shevardnadze's denial that between 1-1.5 million people have left Georgia in recent years in search of employment.) Georgia's Demographic Asociation stated in October that the country is experiencing negative population growth, with deaths outn

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